Analisis Risiko Tekno-Ekonomi untuk Investasi Transformator Distribusi Efisiensi Tinggi Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo

Jumaidi, Ahmad and Marbun, Musa Partahi and Wijaya, Farid (2025) Analisis Risiko Tekno-Ekonomi untuk Investasi Transformator Distribusi Efisiensi Tinggi Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Masters thesis, IT PLN.

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Abstract

Distribution transformers play a crucial role in power systems, making the selection of appropriate technology a strategic decision that must consider both technical and economic aspects. This study aims to analyze the techno-economic risks associated with investing in high-efficiency amorphous core distribution transformers (AMDT) compared to conventional silicon steel core transformers (CRGO), using a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis was conducted on a 20 kV distribution network under three load scenarios (residential, educational campus, and rural village) and two transformer capacities (50 kVA and 100 kVA). Simulation results indicate that AMDT offers lower expected LCC values, with estimated savings for 50 kVA transformers between IDR 12 million to IDR 15 million per unit while 100 kVA transformers between IDR 20 million to IDR 26 million per unit. Additionally, the LCC probability distribution of AMDT is narrower and more stable under input uncertainties compared to CRGO. Sensitivity analysis through tornado diagrams revealed that electricity tariff and failure rate were the two most dominant risk parameters, while interest rates had minimal effect. Based on these findings, it is recommended that PT PLN (Persero) progressively adopt AMDT technology, supported by risk mitigation strategies such as condition-based maintenance and probabilistic investment evaluation. This approach enables more efficient, reliable, and resilient investment decisions that align with long-term energy efficiency and sustainability goals.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: High-efficiency distribution transformer, life cycle cost (LCC), Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, techno-economic risk
Subjects: Bidang Keilmuan > Teknik Elektro
Thesis
Divisions: Pasca Sarjana > S2 Teknik Elektro
Depositing User: Sutrisno
Date Deposited: 25 Feb 2026 03:24
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2026 03:24
URI: https://repository.itpln.ac.id/id/eprint/5251

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