SIMULASI PEMBANGKITAN LISTRIK NASIONAL HINGGA 2060 DENGAN PERANGKAT LUNAK LEAP: STRATEGI PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN LISTRIK MELALUI EKSPANSI ENERGI PANAS BUMI, SURYA, DAN ANGIN

Fathurrahman, Evan M. and Brunner, I Made Indradjaja Marcus and Ibrahim, Ali Herman (2025) SIMULASI PEMBANGKITAN LISTRIK NASIONAL HINGGA 2060 DENGAN PERANGKAT LUNAK LEAP: STRATEGI PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN LISTRIK MELALUI EKSPANSI ENERGI PANAS BUMI, SURYA, DAN ANGIN. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi PLN.

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Abstract

Indonesia's commitment to achieving Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060 positions the energy sector as a central pillar in the national low-carbon transition. However, the dominance of fossil fuels and persistent economic and technical challenges continue to hinder the expansion of renewable energy. This study evaluates national power generation strategies using four scenarios : Business as Usual (BAU), Geothermal Expansion (GEO), Renewable Energy Technical Potential (RET), and Progressive (PRO), employing the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model for the 2025–2060 period. Simulation results show that all scenarios can meet the projected electricity demand of 1,425.3 TWh by 2060. The GEO scenario achieves the highest output at 1,527.4 TWh but requires the largest investment USD 629.0 billion, while RET demands the lowest investment USD 491.4 billion but faces intermittency challenges. The PRO scenario offers the most balanced outcome, with the highest RE share 83.41%, sufficient generation 1,432.6 TWh, and moderate investment USD 597.4 billion. These findings emphasize that an ambitious energy transition can be achieved efficiently through strengthening geothermal energy as a low-emission baseload, integrating solar and wind with energy storage and smart grids, and gradually phasing out coal, particularly when supported by declining technology costs. The study provides a strategic foundation for long-term energy policy aligned with Indonesia’s NZE goals.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Energy transition, LEAP, Energy mix, NZE 2060
Subjects: Bidang Keilmuan > Teknik Tenaga Listrik
Thesis
Divisions: Pasca Sarjana > S2 Teknik Elektro
Depositing User: Sutrisno
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2026 02:12
Last Modified: 09 Mar 2026 02:12
URI: https://repository.itpln.ac.id/id/eprint/6080

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